Foreseeing the Future? Predictors of Divorce  

I have a confession to make. I’m a psychic. At least that’s what my friends told me in eighth grade. We used to play a game where they would ask me anything from what color socks my friend was wearing to which team would win the super bowl, and I would “predict” the correct answer. Well, occasionally I would predict the correct answer, but when I did, we would go crazy with excitement and continue to claim that I had a gift for seeing the future.   

My “psychic” abilities wore off when our middle school game came to an end, but I often find myself wishing I really could see into the future. Wouldn’t it be nice to perfectly predict what the weather would be like when packing for a long-awaited beach trip with friends, or to know what questions you would get asked in a job interview?  

Unfortunately, we can’t actually predict with perfect precision (or anywhere near it most of the time). However, predictions can help us make better decisions in life by giving us some insight into the likely outcomes of our choices, especially when it comes to major life decisions like what job to take, where to move, or whom to marry.  

When it comes to marriage, many people want to know if their marriage will last. Is this something we can predict?  

While you can’t know for sure what your marriage will look like in thirty years, you may be able to gain a general idea of the strength of your marriage based on a few key characteristics. Researchers have identified several “predictors” of divorce by comparing couples who are still together with those who have divorced. Here is what they have found:  

1. Some predictors of divorce have more to do with an individual’s situation than with their actions. For example, one study found that children who experienced their parents divorced were more likely to end their own marriages in divorce. And those who have less education are more likely to experience a divorce. These predictors aren’t fate, but they do indicate greater risk.   
2. Other factors that predict divorce are within our control. For example, research shows that premarital cohabitation – living together before getting married – is definitely a risk factor for divorce. Many people believe that living together before marriage is as essential as test-driving a car, but current research does not support this claim. If you want to dive deeper into this surprising finding, I recommend this blog post about the effects of cohabitation.  
3. What happens within your marriage is also well within your control – and is significantly more important than anything else we’ve talked about. Studies state that various couple dynamics including conflict, verbal hostility, infidelity, and physical aggression are strong predictors of divorce. Treating your partner with love and respect is a sure way to safeguard against these problematic couple dynamics.   

Again: predictors are informative, but they aren’t destiny. So, take them for what they are. My psychic powers to predict your marital success are very limited! Be aware of these predictors, but remember that a successful marriage depends mostly on the effort you put in to make it work. Click here to learn more about ways you can help give your marriage the best chance of long-term success.   

Nathan Bastian was a primary author of this blog.  

Related Resources:
https://extension.usu.edu/strongermarriage/podcast/episodes/056_saving_second_marriage_from_divorce